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The Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) [link] was passed into law yesterday by President Marcos’s signature, and this prompted several readers to ask what this might mean for the stock exchange, and whether certain companies or sectors might stand to benefit more than others.
My short answer: "I don’t know".
The legal language of the fund allows it to invest in the stock market directly, but it also allows the fund to invest in pretty much anything else as well. Given how the market has been performing this year (and in recent years), and given the massive hype that the administration has used to support the quick passage of this law, it seems like lawmakers have their eyes on fatter opportunities than what might be had on the exchange.
My long answer: "Watch closely and follow the trends."
The MIF has significant purchasing power and could definitely move the market, but it isn’t clear yet how the fund managers will deploy the capital. They (the managers) could buy strategic companies in bedrock industries that might form the basis of a long-term government strategy, or they might act as a source of equity for struggling companies of strategic importance that are looking to do a follow-on offering. We are just ants looking for crumbs here.
MB BOTTOM-LINE
My views on the MIF are known, but I’m not going to politically protest with my money on the market.
If the MIF is going to be active on the PSE, it’s in every trader’s best interest to understand (to the best of our ability) the MIF’s strategy and the tactics that it might use to pursue that strategy.
Whether we use that knowledge to try and make money alongside the MIF, or simply to avoid losing money in the chaotic wake of its potential interventions, we will have to wait and see. The MIF is a political tool, and it’s flawed in a number of different ways, but it’s real and it’s happening and so we need to be aware of it and watch closely in the early days to get an idea for how this 400-pound nepobaby gorilla will play in our PSE playground.
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